World Cup 2026 Group G Preview: Belgium Favoured Despite Iran Political Tensions

Belgium's dominant 5-2 victory over the United States on American territory this past March demonstrates the competitive hierarchy in Group G — though the football itself may be overshadowed by unprecedented political circumstances.

Iran faces the extraordinary challenge of competing in a World Cup hosted by a nation with which it's currently engaged in armed conflict. This isn't an exaggeration. FIFA has confirmed all matches will proceed as originally scheduled, turning down Iran's reported appeal to relocate their group matches to Mexico. Team Melli will base themselves in Tucson, Arizona, and kick off their campaign against New Zealand in Inglewood while diplomatic relations between Tehran and Washington remain dangerously strained.

Unprecedented Political Context Surrounds Iran

During a March exhibition match against Nigeria, Iranian players displayed pink and purple backpacks throughout the national anthem — honouring casualties from a February 28 missile attack on an elementary school. Intelligence suggests American weaponry was responsible. That powerful statement will shadow this team throughout every media availability and pre-match ritual for the duration of their tournament run.

Additional controversy surrounds their June 26 encounter with Egypt in Seattle, scheduled the same weekend as the city's Pride celebrations. FIFA has labeled it the tournament's official "Pride Match." Both Iran and Egypt have lodged formal protests citing religious and cultural objections. Iran maintains capital punishment for homosexuality, while Egypt enforces similarly severe anti-LGBTQ+ legislation. FIFA has refused to budge. The Seattle atmosphere promises to be charged.

From a purely tactical standpoint, Iran sits 21st in FIFA's world rankings under former international Amir Ghalenoei, who suffered just one defeat throughout Asian qualification. Skipper Mehdi Taremi brings 57 goals across 102 international matches — currently featuring for Olympiacos following stints with Porto and Inter Milan. This marks Iran's fourth straight World Cup appearance and seventh overall. They've consistently failed to escape the group stage. This particular group offers little reason to expect a breakthrough.

Belgium Enter as Clear Group Favourites — Health Permitting

Rudi Garcia's Belgian squad launches their campaign June 15 against Egypt in Seattle. They're unquestionably the group's elite side. Kevin De Bruyne — appearing in his fourth World Cup with 36 goals in 117 international appearances, currently with Napoli after recently recovering from a thigh problem — remains the team's creative engine. Jeremy Doku's presence at Manchester City provides an attacking threat that Egypt, New Zealand, and Iran simply cannot replicate.

The major uncertainty involves Romelu Lukaku, who's been sidelined for months with a hamstring problem and whose World Cup participation remains genuinely doubtful. Belgium's attacking capabilities with or without Lukaku represent fundamentally different scenarios. Their chances of securing top spot fluctuate dramatically based on his fitness status over the next several weeks.

Egypt arrives with a discouraging World Cup record — three tournament appearances without registering a single victory. Mohamed Salah naturally dominates the narrative, though he sat out Egypt's goalless March draw with Spain due to muscular concerns. The bigger storyline: Salah has confirmed his departure from Liverpool following nine years at Anfield, meaning the entire pre-tournament period will be dominated by transfer rumours. Whether this serves as distraction or motivation remains genuinely uncertain.

• Iran — 21st in FIFA rankings, managed by Ghalenoei, led by Taremi (57 goals in 102 caps). Tournament opener versus New Zealand in Inglewood.
• Belgium — Competing in their 15th World Cup, bronze medallists in 2018. De Bruyne healthy, Lukaku's availability questionable. Begins against Egypt June 15.
• Egypt — Three World Cup campaigns, zero victories. Salah recovering from injury with unresolved club future.
• New Zealand — 85th in world rankings. Captain Chris Wood (45 international goals) returning after five-month injury absence.

New Zealand appears destined for the group's basement position — ranked 85th globally with no history of progression beyond 1982 or 2010 group stages. Chris Wood shoulders the attacking burden but missed five months with Nottingham Forest and continues rebuilding match fitness. The All Whites require near-perfection just to collect a single point.

Belgium should advance comfortably. The runner-up position belongs to Egypt — provided Salah's fitness holds and his Liverpool departure doesn't derail his focus. Iran enters carrying greater political baggage than perhaps any squad in World Cup history, though it won't impact their on-field prospects either way: they've never advanced from the group stage previously.