Why are parlay payouts so big? whats the catch
ok so i just started messing with parlays and the potential payouts are insane compared to single bets. like i put together a 5 leg parlay and it said id win like 40x my money. that cant be free money right, theres gotta be something im missing. why does the book offer such high odds?
12 answers
Top Answer
268
the catch is just math lol. every leg you add has to hit, so the probability of winning drops fast. like if each leg is 50/50, a 5 leg parlay is only about a 3% chance to win. the payout looks huge cause you basically never win them. i used to chase these all the time and lost a ton. now i mostly stick to 2-3 leg max on Boomerang Bet and treat the big ones as lottery tickets, not actual strategy. the books LOVE parlays btw, way higher hold than straight bets
143
yep can confirm. i kept hitting 4 out of 5 legs which is the most painful thing ever. switched to smaller parlays and my bankroll stopped bleeding so fast. the big multi leg ones are pretty much donations to the sportsbook
93
fwiw the math reason is that the book bakes a margin into each leg. so when you multiply 5 legs together youre also multiplying the vig 5 times over. thats why the true odds and the payout odds get further apart the more legs you add. not saying dont do it just know what youre actually paying
67
wait so does that mean a parlay is always a worse deal than betting each leg on its own?
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73
pretty much yeah. mathematically the expected value on a parlay is worse cause the vig compounds. only reason to do it is if you want the big upside swing and accept youll lose most of the time. betting each leg separately gives you more control and better long term EV
51
honestly the thing that drives me nuts is when one leg loses by like nothing. had a 6 leg going and the last game my player was 1 yard short of the prop. lost the whole thing. parlays are designed to break your heart i swear
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2
that sucks but tbh thats the gamble you signed up for with 6 legs. i actually had a 4 leg cash last month for like 900 off a 50 bet so they do hit sometimes. you just cant make it your whole strategy or youll go broke waiting
34
for anyone curious the term is hold percentage. straight bets the book holds maybe 4-5%. parlays can be 20-30%+ depending on legs. thats not opinion its just how the product is structured, the more legs the more they make on average
19
also worth noting some books offer parlay insurance or boosts which slightly improve things but theres usually conditions attached. read the fine print cause the boost rarely makes up for the built in margin
18
idk i feel like everyone here is just salty they keep losing. if parlays were that bad nobody would bet them. seems like you can win big if you actually know what youre picking no?
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21
its not about being salty its about EV man. people bet them cause the payout is exciting not because its profitable. you can absolutely win a big one, ive done it, but over hundreds of bets the math catches up. the book isnt offering 40x out of generosity lol
15
same experience as the top comment. i cut my parlays down to 2-3 legs and my results got way more consistent. still throw a tiny long shot once in a while for fun but i dont expect it to win. treat it like entertainment money and youll be a lot happier